At last, we arrive at the main event! With the 97th Academy Awards upon us, it’s time to celebrate some of the best films of the past year. So, who will take home the gold?
In politics, election chances can shift suddenly mid-stream due to controversy, scandal, or an uncovered story. The race for the Oscars is no different.
The Brutalist faced criticism for using generative AI to “enhance” the cast’s Hungarian pronunciation, employing the model Respeecher to “finesse the tricky dialect.” In the wake of the 2023 SAF/AFTRA strikes, merely whispering the letters “A” and “I” near a film is enough to spark moral panic. But these are tools like any other, and the debate over AI in Hollywood is far from settled.
Emilia Pérez came under fire when a collection of abhorrent tweets resurfaced from its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, the first openly trans woman nominated for Best Actress. Apologies, interviews, and Netflix’s decision not to fly Gascón out for the ceremony followed. The film itself has also faced growing criticism for its portrayal of trans women and crime in Mexico. (Vogue has an excellent piece summing up this year’s Oscar controversies.)
Yet the frontrunners remain firmly in contention. Emilia Pérez leads with a staggering 13 nominations, followed closely by The Brutalist and Wicked, with 10 each. So, let’s take a closer look, shall we?
Anora
Already the winner for the shoutiest film of the last year, Sean Baker’s Anora is making a run at the top slot. Sean Baker set a high bar with The Florida Project and Red Rocket, and Anora seemed to meet it with its Palme d’Or win. Yet while the film brims with his signature style, it also reveals cracks in his approach, veering from lyrical observation into exploitative voyeurism. Mikey Madison delivers a raw, committed performance, but Ani’s relentless misfortunes begin to feel repetitive, lacking the layered humanity of Baker’s earlier protagonists. By the end, the film’s gaze feels more provocative than insightful, overshadowing the story it set out to tell. Read my full review.
Will it win? Like its titular character, the awards journey for Baker’s film has been a rollercoaster. Initially a leading contender with a Palme d’Or, it fell into the shadows behind Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist. However, a strong late-season surge, with big wins at the DGAs, PGAs, SAGs and Independent Spirit Awards, has brought it back to the forefront. If I had to call it now, I’d surprised not to see Sean Baker at the podium.
The Brutalist
A monumental achievement that, like the titular style, may initially appear daunting or unapproachable but rewards every moment you spend with it. Co-written with Mona Fastvold, director Brady Corbet’s film charts Hungarian-Jewish architect László Tóth’s (Adrien Brody) fraught pursuit of the American Dream, blending stark historical realism with audacious visual storytelling. Shot on VistaVision and clocking in at 215 minutes—including a deliberate intermission—the film’s meticulous craft mirrors its subject’s architectural vision, inviting patience to uncover its raw elegance. Brody carries the weight of Tóth’s trauma in every contorted expression, making The Brutalist a towering, transfixing experience—one hell of a destination. Read my full review.
Will it win? In just about any other year, this would be scooping everything. It is nominated for 10 awards after all. It’s my personal favourite, but I think it will get pipped by Anora kicking it to the curb.
A Complete Unknown
Musical biopics often feel like encyclopedia entries strung together by the hits, and this one is no exception. Mangold, who’s navigated this terrain before, sticks to the formula, centering the back half on whether Dylan will “go electric” at Newport—a moment so inevitable it’s like building a cliffhanger around the Titanic’s fate. That said, Chalamet, Barbaro, and Norton all deliver, and the musical sequences crackle with energy. Mangold wisely lets the music take center stage, but in the end, the film doesn’t offer much beyond what we already know: fans have been gatekeeping since at least the 1960s.
Will it win? Once upon a time biopics dressed so fine, so they threw them a few dimes. Now, this one seems like a lock for some of the acting awards, but a long shot for Best Picture. How does it feel?
Conclave
A true actor’s film, building a remarkable amount of tension out of a prolonged election process. (Sound familiar?) The sheer shadiness of the cardinals is a joy to behold, with Tucci and Fiennes forming a particularly compelling double act. The measured pacing of the first half had me completely hooked, though the third act felt somewhat rushed and veered into the preposterous with its succession of “and another thing!” twists. Still, it’s a solid 80s/90s-style thriller elevated by a classy cast.
Will it win? One of the biggest surprises of the BAFTAs was Conclave taking out Best Film. I’m not sure this changes anything, but the real Pope has been quite ill all week. In either case, some divine intervention wouldn’t go astray.
Dune: Part Two
Despite the long-held belief that Dune was unfilmable, Denis Villeneuve’s 2021 adaptation proved otherwise. The issue wasn’t just that previous filmmakers misunderstood the premise or lacked the necessary special effects—it was that they may not have given the material the breathing room it required. Crafting not just a narrative but an entire mythology is a daunting task for any storyteller. Frank Herbert’s vision has confounded many filmmakers before Villeneuve and will no doubt continue to challenge future adaptations. Yet, in 2024, the boldness of a film that interrogates the very foundations of prophecy, religion, and holy wars remains as striking as ever. Read my full review.
Will it win? A few years ago, big event sci-fi films wouldn’t have stood a chance in this race. It’s a different game now, and honestly, anything is possible. Still, much as I love the series, I’d be surprised if this won anything outside the technical categories.
Emilia Pérez
Can something be bold, ambitious, and energetic while also frustrating, misguided, and chaotic? If so, then that’s my pullquote for Emilia Pérez, a musical that wants to be a straight drama—and somehow vice versa too. It’s held together by three excellent lead performances, although it’s ultimately stymied by two things: a style that feels obtrusive rather than complementary, and a reliance on tragic trans narratives that feels more reductive than progressive, missing opportunities for richer, more empowering representation.
Will it win? This was the presumptive frontrunner with 13 nominations before its controversies. It still won Best International Film at the BAFTAs. This might still be the best chance for the film, or an acting award for the supporting cast.
I’m Still Here
This slow-burn thriller demands patience. Set against Brazil’s military dictatorship, it follows the Pavia family with Fernanda Torres delivering a powerhouse turn as Eunice. The film’s restrained approach keeps things taut but sometimes undercuts its emotional weight, and the final act rushes through time with less clarity than the earlier sections. Still, Warren Ellis’ smouldering score heightens the tension, and Torres’ performance is awards-worthy. Flawed but compelling.
Will it win? Here’s another film that faced some controversies in its Oscar run. Torres, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress, faced backlash over a blackface comedy sketch she did almost two decades earlier. Nevertheless, despite the critical love for the film, this is less likely to be a contender for the top slot.
Nickel Boys
I’ll admit this one took me longer to connect with than expected, largely due to its distinctive first-person POV photography, its length, and the lyrical abstraction RaMell Ross employs. Yet Colson Whitehead’s novels—from The Underground Railroad to Harlem Shuffle—are always rich with layered characters, and it’s hard to imagine a better way to translate that prose into visual form. Through a fragmented portrait of memory, we bear witness to decades of institutional hardship and the unshakable bonds of friendship. The documentary elements, statistics, and recollections all serve to “give witness,” as adult character of Elwood (played by Daveed Diggs) so poignantly puts it.
Will it win? Despite nominations in this category and for Best Adapted Screenplay, Nickel Boys feels somewhat forgotten by the tail-end of awards season.
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance dives headfirst into Hollywood’s fixation on youth and beauty, exposing the industry’s brutal marginalisation of ageing actresses. Blending razor-sharp body horror with biting social commentary, the film lays bare the cruelty of unattainable beauty standards, charting Elisabeth’s (Demi Moore) harrowing descent into self-doubt and obsession with her idealised double.
Will it win? Probably not, as genre pictures have been notoriously neglected at the Oscars — but it would be glorious to see, wouldn’t it?
Wicked
The original Broadway Wicked thrives on live variations, making its film adaptation a challenge—one director Jon M. Chu and his team complicate by splitting it into two films. Wicked: Part One stretches a single act into 160 minutes, filling the time with lavish production numbers, ornate costumes, and digital spectacle—some stunning, others teetering into Cats territory. Cynthia Erivo’s powerhouse vocals and Ariana Grande’s comic timing anchor the film, with Michelle Yeoh and Jeff Goldblum adding charm. Ending on the mic-drop moment of “Defying Gravity,” it soars but leaves us stranded in an extended intermission. Read my full review.
Will it win? It very well could. The combination of industry goodwill, box office dominance, and a narrative that aligns with the Academy’s recent voting trends makes Wicked a formidable contender. Even with only half the story told, the sheer momentum behind it—both financially and thematically—might be enough to secure major awards recognition.
